Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, March 27th

Monday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory, taking back some of last week’s rally. Stocks are starting the week with gains, pushing the Dow up 221 points while the Nasdaq has gained 58 points. The bond market is currently down 35/32 (3.50%), which should cause an increase in this morning’s mortgage rates of approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.



30 yr - 3.50%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



General Bond Trends

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. We are seeing overnight weakness carry into this morning’s session. There was some bank news (SVB Financial- the first bank to fail recently, has been purchased), but that in itself is hardly enough to fuel this morning’s selling. It likely is a result of traders capturing profits from last week’s rally than it is any other single reason.




The rest of the week has four monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled for release in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions. None of the reports are considered to be major or key reports, but one of them does include an important inflation reading within the other data.



Consumer Confidence Index

March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick off this week's calendar late tomorrow morning. The New York-based Conference Board will post this index, giving us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. Data showing that consumer confidence in their own financial situation is falling indicates that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. Analysts are expecting to see a decline, bringing the index down to 101.5 from February’s 102.9. Good news for rates would be a smaller than predicted number.



Fed Talk

There are plenty of Fed member speaking engagements scheduled this week. Of particular interest is Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr’s appearance before congress tomorrow and Wednesday to speak about bank oversight. He will speak before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow at 10:00 AM ET, followed by the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday at the same time.



Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Also tomorrow is a 5-year Treasury Note auction that may have an impact on afternoon mortgage pricing. If the sale goes poorly with weak demand from investors, we could see selling in the broader bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, a strong demand for the securities could make bonds more attractive to investors and translate into lower mortgage rates. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so look for any reaction to come during early afternoon trading tomorrow.




Overall, Friday is a good candidate for most important day, but tomorrow may be noticeably active for rates also. The calmest day could be Wednesday unless something unexpected happens. If still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on the markets.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Lopez Financial Inc

NMLS #: 333506

315 E San Bernardino Rd
Covina, CA 91723-1627